Delphi method

The Delphi method, or Delphi technique ( DEL-fy; also known as Estimate–Talk–Estimate, or ETE), is a structured communication technique, or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method that relies on a panel of experts. Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach, prediction markets. Delphi can also be used to help reach expert consensus and develop professional guidelines. It is used for such purposes in many health-related fields, including clinical medicine, public health, and research. Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups. In classic applications, experts answer questionnaires in two or more discrete rounds. However, modern Real-Time Delphi formats often utilize a continuous, roundless interaction. After each round, a facilitator, or change agent, provides an anonymised summary of the experts' forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a predefined stopping criterion (e.g., number of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results), while traditional stopping criteria aimed for statistical convergence (e.g., mean or median scores), contemporary methodology prioritizes mapping the landscape of expert opinion, exploring qualitative reasoning, and identifying valid minority views rather than forcing an artificial consensus. In a Delphi consensus and in research, reaching consensus does not necessarily show that the correct answer has been found but only that agreement has been reached among the experts. The method has been critiqued for emphasizing consensus...