Polymarket

Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market which offers a platform where individuals can place bets on future outcomes, including sports matches, economic indicators, weather patterns, awards, political and legislative outcomes, and military conflicts. Participants can deposit cryptocurrency through the Polygon blockchain network and trade shares that represent the likelihood of specific future outcomes. The company is headquartered in Manhattan, New York City, where the platform was launched in 2020, and has legal domicile in Panama. The platform has been described as operating in "a legal and ethical grey area" because of the controversial nature of the betting markets offered by the company, including markets related to military strikes and ongoing wars. The majority of trades on the platform are related to sports. While it is not labelled a sports betting platform, 63% of trades on the platform are for sports bets. Instances of insider trading and attempts to manipulate outcomes have been observed on the platform. Polymarket has been banned by the governments of France, Brazil, Italy and Gibraltar. It was not able to operate in the United States from 2022 until 2025, when the second Donald Trump administration eased the regulatory environment and Donald Trump Jr. joined the company as an advisor. Scholars have challenged whether the platform efficiently and accurately aggregates information about outcomes. The company advertises that its markets "reflect real-time sentiment"; however, scholars have challenged the way the platform aggregates information about outcomes. A review by the New York Times of Polymarket's social media posts found that the platform has published hundreds of false and misleading posts. Politico uncovered a campaign by Polymarket to pay influencers to praise Polymarket for its supposed accuracy; The Wall Street Journal reported that Polymarket paid content creators to show simulated trades with fake wins on clones of Polymarket's website,...