Pythagorean expectation

Formula used to estimate how many games a baseball team should have won based on the number of runs scored and allowed

Nº Q7263847 ★★

Uncommon · Knowledge

Pythagorean expectation

Formula used to estimate how many games a baseball team should have won based on the number of runs scored and allowed

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Pythagorean expectation is a sports analytics formula devised by Bill James to estimate the percentage of games a baseball team "should" have won based on the number of runs they scored and allowed. Comparing a team's actual and Pythagorean winning percentage can be used to make predictions and evaluate which teams are over-performing and under-performing. The name comes from the formula's resemblance to the Pythagorean theorem. The basic formula is: W i n R a t i o = runs scored 2 runs scored 2 + runs allowed 2 = 1 1 + ( runs allowed / runs scored ) 2 {\displaystyle \mathrm {Win\ Ratio} ={\frac {{\text{runs scored}}^{2}}{{\text{runs scored}}^{2}+{\text{runs allowed}}^{2}}}={\frac {1}{1+({\text{runs allowed}}/{\text{runs scored}})^{2}}}} where Win Ratio is the winning ratio generated by the formula. The expected number of wins would be the expected winning ratio multiplied by the number of games played.

Text: Wikipédia, CC BY-SA 4.0. ·

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