Volatility smile

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Volatility smiles are implied volatility patterns that arise in pricing financial options. It is a parameter (implied volatility) that needs to be modified for the Black–Scholes formula to fit market prices. Generally, for a given expiration, options whose strike price differs substantially from the underlying asset's forward price tend to have prices that deviate from their expected prices using a constant-volatility model based on the at-the-money (strike price near the underlying's forward price). Graphing implied volatilities against strike prices for a given expiry produces a skewed "smile" instead of the expected flat surface. The pattern differs across various markets. Equity options traded in American markets did not show a significant volatility smile before the Crash of 1987 but began showing one afterwards. It is believed that investor reassessments of the probabilities of fat-tail have led to higher prices for out-of-the-money options. This anomaly implies deficiencies in the standard Black–Scholes option pricing model which assumes constant volatility and log-normal distributions of underlying asset returns. Empirical asset returns distributions, however, tend to exhibit fat-tails (kurtosis) and skew. Modelling the volatility smile is an active area of research in quantitative finance, and better pricing models such as the stochastic volatility model partially address this issue. A related concept is that of term structure of volatility, which describes how (implied) volatility differs for related options with different maturities. An implied volatility surface is a 3-D plot that plots volatility smile and term structure of volatility in a consolidated three-dimensional surface for all options on a given underlying asset.